THE DIVIDE – AT 7:31 P.M. ET:  A new Gallup poll plainly shows the divide that has developed over the Obama administration:

Where is the president's approval highest?  In the District of Columbia, at 85%, which is overwelmingly African-American.  Second highest:  Hawaii, at 68%.  (Note the dramatic difference between first and second place.)

Lowest?  Wyoming, at 29%.  Second lowest:  Utah, at 34%.  Another poll has Obama at 28% in Arizona.  I'm surprised it's that high in that state.

There's no doubt the president is in trouble. A "relect" poll, as discussed by Democratic strategist Mark Penn, underlines that trouble:

By far, the most alarming numbers this poll presents for President Barack Obama are the reelection figures; against a generic Republican candidate, he loses by 5 points, 37-42. In general, when an incumbent’s reelect numbers fall below 50 percent, it’s a sign of trouble to come — and Obama’s inability to break even 40 percent may be the most telling indicator to come out of these data.

COMMENT:  But remember that Obama retains substantial strength in the largest states, in part because of their loyal minority populations.  Nothing is going to be easy for the Republicans. 

Midterms will soon be upon us.  Remember, there is no prize for second place in politics.

July 19, 2010